Global per capita CO₂ emissions have (still) peaked
Global per capita CO₂ emissions probably peaked a decade ago.
I'm still waiting for the day that the world passes peak CO₂ emissions.
To address climate change we need emissions to fall quickly over the next half-century. But, before we even think about reducing global emissions, we need them to stop growing. We need to peak.
We do have one glimmer of hope that this might not be too far off.
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Per capita CO₂ emissions
Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuels and industry. Land use change is not included.
Source: Our World in Data, based on the Global Carbon Project
Scroll down to begin. 🔻
On Our World in Data we show data on per capita CO₂ emissions, based on data from the Global Carbon Project.
Global per capita emissions appeared to peak at 4.9 tonnes per person in 2012.
The trend has hovered a little since then, before falling a lot during the pandemic, and rebounding in 2021.
A few weeks ago the Global Carbon Project released its preliminary estimate of emissions for 2022. I wanted to check if we'd called a peak too soon.
It seems we're still on track. By my calculations, per capita emissions this year were around 4.7 tonnes. A little higher than last year, but still below the 4.9 tonnes peak in 2012.
A peak in per capita emissions means a peak in total emissions is coming.
Of course, the atmosphere doesn't care about a peak in per capita emissions. It's the total amount of CO₂ we're pumping into the atmosphere that drives climate change.
We still haven't reached a peak in total emissions. Why, then, does a peak in per capita emissions matter? It's a strong signal that a peak in total emissions is coming.
Total emissions will peak when per capita emissions fall at a faster rate than the global population is growing. Since global population growth is falling quickly, we're in a good spot to do this.
It's also a sign that we're getting somewhere in decarbonising individual lifestyles. Extreme poverty rates have fallen, and global living standards have increased over the past decade (of course, with massive global inequalities and a dip from the COVID-19 pandemic). The fact that per capita emissions have been falling is a sign that we're getting better at living better lives with fewer emissions.
Population growth rate
The growth rate is the population change determined by births, deaths, and migration flows.
Source: Our World in Data, based on the United Nations World Population Prospects (2022)
Share of population living in extreme poverty
Extreme poverty is defined as living below the International Poverty Line of $2.15 per day.
Source: Our World in Data, based on World Bank Poverty and Inequality Platform
As I will always repeat: this is not happening fast enough. To peak total emissions, and bring emissions down, we need to be moving much faster.